Establishment and efficacy evaluation of a risk prediction model for lymphoma in patients with Sjögren’s syndrome

doi:10.19439/j.sjos.2025.06.006

Abstract

Abstract: PURPOSE: To investigate the risk factors for lymphoma in patients with primary Sjögren's syndrome (pSS), construct a risk prediction model, and evaluate its predictive efficacy. METHODS: A total of 202 patients diagnosed with pSS at the Department of Stomatology, Affiliated Hospital of Xuzhou Medical University from February 2019 to August 2024 were collected and divided into two groups: lymphoma occurrence group(n=23) and non-occurrence group(n=179). Univariate analysis and multivariate logistic regression were performed to screen risk factors with SPSS 26.0 software package, and a risk prediction nomogram model was established. The model was evaluated by the receiver operator characteristic curve(ROC) and calibration curve(CC). Then, the decision curve analysis(DCA) was plotted. RESULTS: Univariate analysis showed that lymphadenopathy, swollen glands, neutropenia, thrombocytopenia, lymphocytopenia, high IgG levels, interstitial pneumonia, and renal damages had significant differences between two groups (P<0.05). Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that lymphadenopathy, neutropenia, lymphocytopenia, and high IgG levels were independent risk factors. The area under the curve(AUC) was 0.931. The calibration curve indicated that the model had good predictive performance. The decision curve showed that the prediction model had a high net benefit within the threshold probability range of 5%-95%. CONCLUSIONS: Lymphadenopathy, neutropenia, lymphocytopenia, and high IgG levels can be used as predictive factors for lymphoma occurrence in pSS. This risk prediction model is helpful for assessing the risk of lymphoma occurrence in pSS, thereby actively intervening to reduce the occurrence of lymphoma.

Key words: Primary Sjögren's syndrome, Lymphoma, Risk factors, Prediction model

CLC Number:

Fan Yijia, Lu Xinyue, Lyu Zhongjing. Establishment and efficacy evaluation of a risk prediction model for lymphoma in patients with Sjögren’s syndrome[J]. Shanghai Journal of Stomatology, 2025, 34(6): 595-600.

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